Bonus: Popular Vote Prediction

This is a short bonus blog post to predict the 2024 presidential election two-party national popular vote share.

## Reading the polls off face value gives 50.52689

Using our final model, here is the prediction interval.

##       fit      lwr      upr
## 1 50.1292 44.73647 55.52194

We predict that Harris will win the popular vote with probability:

## 47.20112 %